Description: We develop a model based on causal mortality in order to better understand inequalities in life expectancy across socioeconomic circumstances.

Description: We develop a model based on causal mortality in order to better understand inequalities in life expectancy across socioeconomic circumstances.

Description: This paper presents a generalization of the principal current methods of financial decision making. In the way physical sciences benefit from new general theories that encompass those theories they succeed, the science of finance can benefit from the development of a general framework that encompasses many of the current methods of financial analysis. The paper develops a general framework for financial decision-making from a few simple axioms of rational economic behavior.

Description: Shapiro 1990 documented some of the criteria used by actuaries when selecting the assumptions for actuarial valuations. He noted, however, that many of these criteria are often were in conflict with one another. This paper uses expected utility theory to model this process of choosing actuarial assumption when faced with potentially conflicting criteria. The three criteria considered are prudence, best estimate and conservativeness.

Description: We describe our process of hand-curation of centenarian pedigrees and software that we developed for the automated construction of pedigrees.

Description: The costly, time-consuming and complicated process of enterprise risk management (ERM) can be improved in many companies and made less tedious for managers by using reasonable data and templates obtained from peer group entities. The models used to calculate economic capital (EC) often underestimate its value because they do not consider decision-maker perception about risk. We assume here that managers, as the decision-makers, have appropriate business understanding and they can provide substantial information about risk characteristics regarding all business processes. Therefore we are focused, in this paper, on collecting data from managers across the different businesses to derive the appropriate knowledge about risky events, the importance of particular types of risk, the relationship between the risk outcomes and the level of risk control in a particular industry. We conclude that the collected data has a high potential for use as a benc hmarking reference and analysis for improving ERM models for individual businesses.

Description: This paper provides a description of a system using statistical spatial methods for measuring, analysis, and managing ERM losses. An example of its application to a delinquency rate in a residential mortgage portfolio analysis demonstrates how this methodology can help decrease a company’s exposure in high-risk areas and increase exposure in low-risk areas.

Description: A sound enterprise risk management (ERM) framework functions as an ecosystem by balancing the interdependencies of its elements while constantly adapting to an ever‐changing, external environment. Each stakeholder has a unique role to play in forming a thriving ERM ecosystem by integrating risk‐conscientiousness in decision‐making. A resilient ERM framework has a single well‐ understood risk language and culture to promote healthy risk‐taking behaviors. The central focus of such a framework is concentrated around all stakeholders and everyone is held accountable. Every day, external forces can potentially disrupt how we operatively conduct business. Unforeseen changes in regulation, market trends, terrorist’s attacks and extreme natural disasters are often categorized as extremely adverse. How then will your ERM ecosystem survive the one‐in‐200 event and continue to flourish through dynamically changing environments?

Description: A sound enterprise risk management (ERM) framework functions as an ecosystem by balancing the interdependencies of its elements while constantly adapting to an ever‐changing, external environment. Each stakeholder has a unique role to play in forming a thriving ERM ecosystem by integrating risk‐conscientiousness in decision‐making. A resilient ERM framework has a single well‐ understood risk language and culture to promote healthy risk‐taking behaviors. The central focus of such a framework is concentrated around all stakeholders and everyone is held accountable. Every day, external forces can potentially disrupt how we operatively conduct business. Unforeseen changes in regulation, market trends, terrorist’s attacks and extreme natural disasters are often categorized as extremely adverse. How then will your ERM ecosystem survive the one‐in‐200 event and continue to flourish through dynamically changing environments?

Description: Adaptive Risk Management harnesses social intelligence to identify emerging risks. We have entered an age of disruption where exponential technologies are transforming every industry. The ability to pivot in a rapidly evolving ecosystem is essential. Centralized “predict and control” paradigms will increasingly fail as complex interactions drive phase transitions. Successful organizations will harness social intelligence to “sense and respond” to giant waves of change. Maps amplify intelligence to help us navigate challenging terrain. Maps play a central role in all command centres, enabling rapid risk identification with a shared visual language. Interactive financial network maps allow analysts to explore and diagnose systemic fragilities, and mitigate critical vulnerabilities. Dynamic financial maps can also build visual intuition to detect escalating risk patterns. After observing early warning signals, analysts can apply network analytics to estimate likely second order effects. This allows organizations to proactively manage emerging risk before tipping points are crossed.